Vol. 1 (2026)

Cases and Insights

Pressure and Preparation: Japan’s Response to Chinese Rare Earth Coercion and Lessons for U.S. Policymakers

Published 2026-05-25

  • Taylore Roth
    • ,
  • John VerWey

Taylore Roth
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (United States)

John VerWey
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (United States)

Journal of Geoeconomics Cover

Abstract

U.S. policymakers face enduring dependencies on Chinese critical mineral supplies, with vulnerabilities exacerbated by Beijing's control over global processing and its willingness to weaponize its leverage for political goals. To support U.S. policymakers as they confront Chinese export controls on rare earth elements (REEs), this case study examines lessons from the 2010 Senkaku Islands dispute when China halted REE exports to Japan and the United States. The conventional narrative of the dispute fundamentally mischaracterizes both Chinese actions and Japanese responses, focusing on Japan's immediate crisis responses. However, closer examination reveals that Japanese policymakers and industry worked for years to reduce vulnerability to Chinese supply manipulation, offering lessons about the importance of sustained supply chain investments, industry-led resilience, and strategic partnerships. Finally, this case study also conveys new insights about the Chinese coercive strategy.

JEL Classification: F13, F51, F52, L52, Q34

Keywords

Rare earth elements, economic coercion, critical minerals, supply chain resilience, export controls, geoeconomics, China, Japan, Senkaku Islands

READ THE ARTICLE (PDF)

Author Biography

Taylore Roth

Taylore Roth is a National Security Specialist at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), and a Nonresident Fellow at The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR).

John VerWey

John VerWey is an advisor in the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s (PNNL) Global Security, Technology and Policy group. He is also a non-resident fellow at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) and The National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR).

References

  1. Bradsher, K. 2010. China Said to Widen Its Embargo of Minerals. Business. The New York Times, October 19. https://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/20/business/global/20rare.html.
  2. Branigan, T., and McCurry, J. 2010. Japan Releases Chinese Fishing Boat Captain. World News. The Guardian, September 24. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/sep/24/japan-free-chinese-boat-captain.
  3. Carrington, D. 2010. EU Plans to Clamp down on Carbon Trading Scam. Environment. The Guardian, October 26. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2010/oct/26/eu-ban-carbon-permits.
  4. China General Administration of Customs. 2025. Author Calculations. July.
  5. China Ministry of Commerce. 2004. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs Issued the 2005 Catalogue of Goods Subject to Export License Administration in Announcement No. 78 of 2004. (商务部、海关总署公告2004 年第78 号 发布《2005 年出口许可证管理货物目录》). December 10. https://policy.mofcom.gov.cn/claw/clawContent.shtml?id=10737.
  6. China Ministry of Commerce. 2009. Notice of the Ministry of Commerce on Issuing the First Batch of General Trade Rare Earth Export Quotas for 2010 （商务部关于下达2010 年第一批一般贸易稀土出口配额的通知). December 29. https://www.mofcom.gov.cn/zcfb/zgdwjjmywg/art/2010/art_821115928789414c8cf7305a792d1b43.html.
  7. China Ministry of Commerce. 2010a. Notice of the Ministry of Commerce on Issuing the Second Batch of Rare Earth General Trade Export Quotas in 2010 （商务部关于下达2010 年第二批稀土一般贸易出口配额的通知）. July 8. https://m.mofcom.gov.cn/article/b/e/201007/20100707011768.shtml.
  8. China Ministry of Commerce. 2010b. Notice of the Ministry of Commerce on Issuing the First Batch of Rare Earth Export Quotas for 2011 (商务部关于下达2011 年第一批稀土出口配额的通知). China Ministry of Commerce, December 28. https://wms.mofcom.gov.cn/ztxx/nyzypmy/art/2010/art_68206e428a6a4fff8f32e2c5eb616695.html.
  9. China Ministry of Commerce. 2011. Notice of the Ministry of Commerce on Issuing the Second Batch of General Trade Rare Earth Export Quotas for 2011 (商务部关于下 达2011 年第二批一般贸易稀土出口配额的通知 ). 4/14/2011, April 14. https://policy.mofcom.gov.cn/claw/clawContent.shtml?id=2545.
  10. China Ministry of Commerce. 2015. China Officially Cancels Rare Earth Export Quotas（中国正式取消稀土出口配额 ）. May 7. http://chinawto.mofcom.gov.cn/article/jsbl/zszc/201505/20150500964072.shtml.
  11. China Ministry of Finance. 2006. Notice of the Tariff Commission of the State Council on Adjusting the Provisional Import and Export Tariff Rates for Some Commodities（国务院关税税则委员会关于调整部分商品进出口暂定税率的通知 ）. November 10. https://www.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/zhengcefabu/2006zcfb/200805/t20080519_24597.htm.
  12. China State Council. 1991. Notice on Listing Tungsten-Tin-Antimony Ion-Type Rare Earth Minerals as Specific Minerals Subject to Protective Mining by the State (关于将钨锡锑离子型稀土矿产列为国家实行保护性开采特定矿种的通知). January 15. https://csrcare.com/Law/Show?id=25814.
  13. China State Council. 2005. State Council Notice on Comprehensively Rectifying and Standardizing the Order of Mineral Resource Development (国务院关于全面整顿 和规范矿产资源开发秩序的通知). September 23. https://www.gov.cn/zwgk/2005-09/23/content_69361.htm.
  14. Fan, J. H., Omura, A., and Roca, E. 2023. “Geopolitics and Rare Earth Metals.” European Journal of Political Economy 78 (June): 102356. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2022.102356.
  15. Gholz, E., and Hughes, L. 2021. “Market Structure and Economic Sanctions: The 2010 Rare Earth Elements Episode as a Pathway Case of Market Adjustment.” Review of International Political Economy 28 (3): 611–34. https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2019.1693411.
  16. Hono, K. n.d. Research Tr[e]Nds on Rare Earth and Critical Elements in Japan. https://www.energy.gov/node/294187.
  17. Hornby, L. 2010. China Denies Banning Rare Earths Exports to Japan. United States.
  18. Reuters, September 23. https://www.reuters.com/article/world/us/china-deniesbanning-rare-earths-exports-to-japan-idUSTRE68M0PF/.
  19. Hsiao, R. 2010. Strategic Implications of China’s Consolidation of Rare Earth Industries. October 8. https://jamestown.org/program/strategic-implications-of-chinasconsolidation-of-rare-earth-industries/.
  20. Hurst, C. 2011. Japan’s Approach to China’s Control of Rare Earth Elements. China Brief, Jamestown Foundation, April 22. https://jamestown.org/program/japansapproach-to-chinas-control-of-rare-earth-elements/.
  21. International Energy Agency. 2024. Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2024. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/ee01701d-1d5c-4ba8-9df6-abeeac9de99a/GlobalCriticalMineralsOutlook2024.pdf.
  22. Isidore, C. 2025. Rare Earths Shortage Could Cause Pandemic-Era Disruptions, Experts Say. CNN, June 10. https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/10/business/rare-earthsshortage-impact.
  23. Japanese Ministry of Finance. 2025. Author Calculations.
  24. Kuantan, Malaysia. n.d. Lynas Rare Earths. Accessed July 31, 2025.
  25. https://lynasrareearths.com/kuantan-malaysia-2/.
  26. McCurry, J. 2010. Japan-China Row Escalates over Fishing Boat Collision. World News. The Guardian, September 9. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/sep/09/japan-china-fishing-boat-collision.
  27. Ministry of Finance. 2006. Notice of the Tariff Commission of the State Council on the 2007 Tariff Implementation Plan [Repealed] (国务院关税税则委员会关于2007年关税实施方案的通知[废止] ). December 19. https://www.chinaacc.com/new/63/73/157/2006/12/wa36461438599221600211084-0.htm.
  28. Ministry of Finance. 2007. Notice of the State Council Tariff Commission on Adjusting the Provisional Import and Export Tax Rates of Some Commodities (国务院关税税则委员会关于调整部分商品进出口暂定税率的通知). May 22. https://faolex.fao.org/docs/pdf/chn196781.pdf.
  29. Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation. 1999. Notice of the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Cooperation of the People’s Republic of China on Issuing Export Quotas for Rare Earth Products in 1999 (中华人民共和国对外贸易经济合作部关于下达1999 年稀土产品出口配额的通知). February 14. https://law1.110.com/law_40560.html.
  30. MP Materials. 2025. MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence. July 10. https://investors.mpmaterials.com/investor-news/newsdetails/2025/MP-Materials-Announces-Transformational-Public-Private-Partnership-with-the-Department-of-Defense-to-Accelerate-U-S--Rare-Earth-
  31. Magnet-Independence/default.aspx.
  32. Nikkei. 2010. Resource Diplomacy: Public-Private Collaboration to Develop Rare Earths with Mongolia (資源外交、官民一体で モンゴルとレアアース開発). 日本 経済新聞, October 2. https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXDZO15644050S0A001C1MM8000/.
  33. Obayashi, Y. 2022. Japan’s JOGMEC, Sojitz Invest $9 Million in Rare-Earths Miner Lynas. Commodities. Reuters, September 20. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/japans-jogmec-sojitz-invest-9-mln-rare-earths-miner-lynas-2022-09-20/.
  34. Palmer, D. 2010. U.S. Threatens WTO Action on China Rare Earth Curbs. Environment. Reuters, December 23. https://www.reuters.com/article/business/environment/us-threatens-wto-action-on-china-rare-earth-curbsidUSTRE6BM3S4/.
  35. Pamment, J., et al. 2019. The 2010 Senkaku Crisis. NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence. https://stratcomcoe.org/cuploads/pfiles/senkaku_crisis.pdf.
  36. Park, S., Tracy, C. L., and Ewing, R. C. 2023. “Reimagining US Rare Earth Production: Domestic Failures and the Decline of US Rare Earth Production Dominance – Lessons Learned and Recommendations.” Resources Policy 85 (August): 104022. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2023.104022.
  37. Sina Finance. 2024. China’s Ministry of Commerce Announces 2005 Metal Export Quotas (中国商务部公布2005 年金属类商品出口配额 ). November 2. https://finance.sina.com.cn/futuremarket/gnfinfo/20041102/11121125830.shtml.
  38. Sojitz Corporation Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corporation. 2011. Sojitz and JOGMEC Enter into Definitive Agreements with Lynas Including Availability Agreement to Secure Supply of Rare Earths Products to Japanese Market. Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security, March 30. https://www.jogmec.go.jp/english/news/release/release0069.html.
  39. Tabuchi, H. 2010. Japan Recycles Rare Earth Minerals From Used Electronics - The New York Times. New York Times, October 4. https://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/05/business/global/05recycle.html.
  40. Takagi, T. 2010. Japan’s Strategy for Securing Rare Metals (日本のレアメタル確保戦略). Geological News, June. https://www.gsj.jp/data/chishitsunews/2010_06_03.pdf.
  41. Tse, P. 2011. China’s Rare-Earth Industry. U.S. Geological Survey. https://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2011/1042/of2011-1042.pdf.
  42. United States Trade Representative. 2010. United States Launches Section 301 Investigation into China’s Policies Affecting Trade and Investment in Green Technologies. October 15. https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/pressoffice/press-releases/2010/october/united-states-launches-section-301-investigation-c.
  43. Uno, M. 2012. A Rare Talent for Substitute Materials. Highlighting Japan, January. https://www.govonline.go.jp/video/cao/dl/public_html/gov/pdf/hlj/20120101/14-15.pdf.
  44. U.S. Census Bureau. 2025. Author Calculations.
  45. Vekasi, K. 2018. “Politics, Markets, and Rare Commodities: Responses to Chinese Rare Earth Policy.” Japanese Journal of Political Science 20 (1). https://doi.org/10.1017/S1468109918000385.
  46. Vekasi, K. 2022. Green Technology, National Security, and Raw Materials: Economic Security and Critical Rare Earth Metals. Harvard University. https://projects.iq.harvard.edu/sites/projects.iq.harvard.edu/files/us-japan/files/22-vk_vekasi_kristin.pdf.
  47. White House. 2025. Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production.
  48. The White House, March 20. https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidentialactions/2025/03/immediate-measures-to-increase-american-mineral-production/.
  49. World Trade Organization. 2012. US, Japan and EU File Disputes against China. March 13. https://www.wto.org/english/news_e/news12_e/dsrfc_13mar12_e.htm.
  50. World Trade Organization. 2014. Panel Report on China - Measures Related to the Exportation of Rare Earths, Tungsten, and Molybdenum. March 26. https://docs.wto.org/dol2fe/Pages/FE_Search/FE_S_S009DP.aspx?language=E&CatalogueIdList=123565,123566&CurrentCatalogueIdIndex=0&FullTextHash=&HasEnglishRecord=True&HasFrenchRecord=True&HasSpanishRecord=True.
  51. Wübbeke, J. 2013. “Rare Earth Elements in China: Policies and Narratives of Reinventing an Industry.” Resources Policy 38 (3): 384–94. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resourpol.2013.05.005.
  52. Yang, F. 2022. “China’s Rare-Earth Resource Nationalism: Learning from Japan’s Experiences.” Global Asia 17 (4). https://www.globalasia.org/v17no4/cover/chinasrare-earth-resource-nationalism-learning-from-japans-experiences_florence-w-yang.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Similar Articles

1-10 of 16

You may also start an advanced similarity search for this article.